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Kayserispor 2–2 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win44%2.20
Rizespor win29%3.38
Draw27%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟥Rajko Rotman · Kayserispor
20'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
25'⚽Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
45'🟥Braian Samudio · Rizespor
62'⚽ (pen)Tjaronn Chery · Kayserispor
65'🟨Silviu Lung Jr. · Kayserispor
73'⚽Umut Bulut · Kayserispor
86'⚽Ali Çamdalı · Rizespor
89'🟨Oleksandr Gladkiy · Rizespor
90'🟨Orhan Ovacıklı · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots6
4On target2
5Corners6
11Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.31
box share (last 5)0.420.48
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days158.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
35.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.440.82
elo1445.811462.05
elo momentum (last 5)-16.017.26
eye test v10.27-0.67
eye trend v1-0.22-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)55.7060.10
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.95
keeper form v10.630.84
league points8.006.00
league rank13.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0079.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8050.60
rest days6.775.77
scorer concentration—0.29
season ppg1.140.86
skill v10.330.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.00
state index-0.75-0.19
sterile dominance v1-0.170.62
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80