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Alanyaspor 1–0 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Mon, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Halis Ozkahya, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win44%2.21
Alanyaspor win31%3.13
Draw26%3.77

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Merih Demiral · Alanyaspor
65'🟨Fabrice N'Sakala · Alanyaspor
68'🟨Yusuf Yazıcı · Trabzonspor
89'🟨Onur Kıvrak · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots11
7On target5
4Corners6
19Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.66
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
coach days259.00108.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.19
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.213.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.07
dominance (last 5)0.520.51
elo1493.801641.26
elo momentum (last 5)-35.3546.84
eye test v1-0.401.01
eye trend v1-0.40-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.3059.50
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.801.60
goals against avg (last 5)3.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v1—0.68
league points3.0010.00
league rank18.008.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4083.60
possession avg (last 5)46.6053.00
rest days16.0015.80
scorer concentration—0.25
season ppg0.601.67
shot diff avg (last 5)1.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.8013.00
skill v1-0.470.92
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.106.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.806.20
squad age29.2028.97
state index-0.810.95
sterile dominance v1-0.310.28
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40