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Rizespor 1–1 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Suat Arslanboga, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win42%2.31
Bursaspor win31%3.16
Draw28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Diafra Sakho · Bursaspor
28'🟨Ertuğrul Ersoy · Bursaspor
58'⚽Fernando Boldrin · Rizespor
77'🟨Stéphane Badji · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots9
5On target4
3Corners3
25Fouls19
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.560.51
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
coach days15.00107.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)—0.07
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
corner diff avg (last 5)
-2.00
0.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.37
defensive leak (last 5)—0.11
dominance (last 5)—0.51
elo1459.791452.26
elo momentum (last 5)-27.781.27
eye test v10.14-0.44
eye trend v1-0.18-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.5049.80
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.79—
league points2.003.00
league rank19.0018.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win5.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6049.00
rest days14.0014.00
season ppg0.400.75
shot diff avg (last 5)—-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)—9.20
skill v10.270.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
squad age27.3626.69
state index-0.62-0.51
sterile dominance v10.160.14
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80