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Goztep 2–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arda Kardesler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win41%2.33
Kayserispor win29%3.28
Draw29%3.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Yasin Öztekin · Goztep
20'⚽Alpaslan Öztürk · Goztep
45'🟨Alpaslan Öztürk · Goztep
86'🟨Bernard Mensah · Kayserispor
89'🟨Rajko Rotman · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots9
6On target1
4Corners1
11Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.370.50
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadium
coach days441.00137.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.58
elo1455.101514.70
elo momentum (last 5)-10.9123.35
eye test v1-1.200.89
eye trend v1-0.320.39
first sub minute (last 10)59.7055.50
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.550.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.590.59
league points3.008.00
league rank18.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6083.40
possession avg (last 5)51.0055.20
rest days14.0014.00
season ppg0.602.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.4012.40
skill v10.471.05
sot against avg (last 5)2.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)1.806.40
state index-0.480.28
sterile dominance v10.800.53
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.160.27
threat rate (last 5)0.170.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80