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Kayserispor 0–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win40%2.42
Yeni Malatyaspor win30%3.23
Draw30%3.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Rajko Rotman · Kayserispor
85'🟨Adem Büyük · Yeni Malatyaspor
89'🟨Atila Turan · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots6
5On target2
4Corners6
15Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.520.52
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
coach days116.00358.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.19
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.801.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.841.52
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.41
elo1497.601547.47
elo momentum (last 5)-9.7528.48
eye test v1-0.31-0.71
eye trend v10.810.16
first sub minute (last 10)51.8060.10
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.530.65
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4077.60
possession avg (last 5)58.2040.40
rest days7.007.00
season ppg2.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.408.40
skill v11.36-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.60
state index-0.210.14
sterile dominance v11.18-0.55
threat rate (last 10)0.170.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.190.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80