⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Goztep 1–0 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win48%2.03
Draw27%3.62
Goztep win26%3.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

50'🟨Islam Slimani · Fenerbahce
66'⚽Halil Akbunar · Goztep
81'🟨André Poko · Goztep
90'🟨Wallace Reis · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots9
1On target1
4Corners5
16Fouls16
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.400.71
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
coach days420.0085.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.19
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBornova Stadium
corner diff avg (last 5)
1.20
3.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.24
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.63
elo1446.111783.69
elo momentum (last 5)-29.22-5.53
eye test v1-0.581.35
eye trend v1-0.65-0.42
first sub minute (last 10)56.5062.00
form points (last 5)0.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.202.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.561.89
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.60
keeper form v1—0.76
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.003.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8084.20
possession avg (last 5)51.2060.40
rest days5.807.00
season ppg0.001.50
shot diff avg (last 5)0.806.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.8014.80
skill v10.411.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.506.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.80
state index-0.921.21
sterile dominance v10.340.15
threat rate (last 10)0.260.31
threat rate (last 3)0.180.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.40