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Alanyaspor 0–2 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Sansalan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win47%2.06
Ankaragücü win27%3.58
Draw26%3.72

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Filipe Augusto · Alanyaspor
37'🟨Arif Morkaya · Ankaragücü
39'🟨Mostapha El Kabir · Ankaragücü
46'🟨Barış Başdaş · Alanyaspor
52'🟥Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
57'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Ankaragücü
65'⚽İlhan Parlak · Ankaragücü
70'🟨Thievy Bifouma · Ankaragücü
70'🟥Thievy Bifouma · Ankaragücü
82'🟨Lucas Villafanez · Alanyaspor
83'🟨Ricardo Faty · Ankaragücü
85'🟨Kenan Özer · Ankaragücü
89'⚽Tiago Pinto · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots5
5On target4
6Corners2
19Fouls15
3Yellow cards6
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.40—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.50—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.43—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.69—
cards avg (last 5)3.600.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAlanya Oba Stadyumu
coach days230.00748.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.16—
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40—
corners against avg (last 5)3.40—
corners for avg (last 5)4.80—
corners volatility (last 10)1.97—
defensive leak (last 5)0.21—
dominance (last 5)0.56—
elo1522.051341.14
elo momentum (last 5)14.55-35.42
eye test v10.09—
eye trend v10.21—
first sub minute (last 10)60.90—
form points (last 5)8.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.403.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
keeper form v10.550.64
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet13.0017.00
matches since win1.0018.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.80—
possession avg (last 5)48.40—
rest days8.008.80
season ppg0.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80—
shots for avg (last 5)9.80—
skill v1-0.50—
sot against avg (last 5)3.60—
sot for avg (last 10)4.70—
sot for avg (last 3)6.00—
sot for avg (last 5)4.80—
squad age28.6830.69
state index0.17-2.27
sterile dominance v1-0.18—
threat rate (last 10)0.27—
threat rate (last 3)0.25—
threat rate (last 5)0.23—
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00