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Akhisarspor 1–1 Rizespor

← SΓΌper Lig 2018 Β· Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win46%2.12
Draw27%3.53
Rizespor win27%3.59

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Matic Fink · Rizespor
28'⚽Vedat Muriqi · Rizespor
45'πŸŸ₯Evgen Seleznev Β· Akhisarspor
66'⚽Mustafa Yumlu · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots24
3On target10
4Corners3
18Fouls14
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.530.50
cards avg (last 5)3.000.40
coach days49.001357.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.13β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueSpor Toto Akhisar Stadyumu
corner diff avg (last 5)
-3.20
-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.431.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.10β€”
dominance (last 5)0.41β€”
elo1514.711468.74
elo momentum (last 5)6.0114.08
eye test v1-0.230.00
eye trend v10.48-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)54.5059.50
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.550.76
matches since blank5.0012.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2044.00
rest days7.007.90
season ppg0.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40β€”
shots for avg (last 5)8.60β€”
skill v1-0.01-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)3.407.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
squad age30.6526.62
state index-0.13-0.04
sterile dominance v10.17-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20