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Antalyaspor 3–3 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win40%2.40
Antalyaspor win32%3.02
Draw28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
15'🟨Ferhat Öztorun · Konyaspor
29'🟨Volkan Fındıklı · Konyaspor
39'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
43'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
45'⚽Moryke Fofana · Konyaspor
53'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
67'⚽Maicon · Antalyaspor
74'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
75'⚽Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
85'🟨Ali Turan · Konyaspor
90'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
90'🟥Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots10
9On target4
7Corners3
17Fouls19
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.520.75
cards avg (last 5)1.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
coach days229.0017.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.282.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.58
elo1504.671531.51
elo momentum (last 5)-31.09-7.16
eye test v1-0.350.23
eye trend v1-0.320.40
first sub minute (last 10)63.3055.50
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.640.78
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6078.40
possession avg (last 5)44.4054.00
rest days5.006.00
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.202.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.0010.20
skill v1-0.170.46
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.80
squad age27.8229.91
state index-0.700.06
sterile dominance v1-0.150.27
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00