⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Yeni Malatyaspor 1–0 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2018 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win56%1.74
Draw25%3.92
Yeni Malatyaspor win20%4.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

70'⚽Danijel Aleksić · Yeni Malatyaspor
71'🟨Danijel Aleksić · Yeni Malatyaspor
90'🟨Mitchell Donald · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots13
2On target4
2Corners3
14Fouls9
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.520.67
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
coach days351.0078.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.25
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.002.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)1.406.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.663.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.440.64
elo1532.131799.03
elo momentum (last 5)13.5418.67
eye test v1-0.681.49
eye trend v1-0.190.17
first sub minute (last 10)57.4061.70
form points (last 5)7.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.202.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.203.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.65
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.60
keeper form v10.660.81
matches since blank2.0010.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6083.60
possession avg (last 5)44.2058.40
rest days6.007.00
season ppg3.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.006.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.6014.80
skill v1-0.191.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.706.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.008.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.807.20
squad age27.1828.65
state index0.171.70
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.01
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.200.39
threat rate (last 5)0.220.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.603.00