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Trabzonspor 3–1 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2018 · Fri, Aug 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasar Kemal Ugurlu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win53%1.82
Draw26%3.70
Sivasspor win21%4.68

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Delvin N'Dinga · Sivasspor
7'⚽Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor
8'🟨Olcay Şahan · Trabzonspor
13'🟨David Braz · Sivasspor
14'⚽ (pen)Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
27'⚽Hugo Rodallega · Trabzonspor
45'⚽Douglas · Sivasspor
85'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Sivasspor
90'🟨Erdoğan Yeşilyurt · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
10Shots12
8On target3
8Corners5
12Fouls19
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.590.54
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMedical Park Stadyumu
coach days77.0077.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.490.47
elo1586.751580.17
elo momentum (last 5)-22.517.57
eye test v10.610.12
eye trend v1-0.51-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)51.0051.30
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.450.57
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.770.65
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8080.40
possession avg (last 5)49.4051.00
rest days4.906.00
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.608.20
skill v10.390.46
sot against avg (last 5)6.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)6.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.40
squad age28.6628.75
state index-0.140.09
sterile dominance v1-0.370.37
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.350.24
threat rate (last 5)0.310.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00