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Red Star 0–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win52%1.87
Draw29%3.33
Red Star win19%5.02

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Silas · Paris FC
32'🟨Samba Diakite · Red Star
74'🟨Jordan Faucher · Red Star

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots7
6On target1
9Corners2
17Fouls11
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.460.62
cards avg (last 5)1.601.80
coach days16.00343.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
corner diff avg (last 5)
-0.40
-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.633.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.53
elo1339.911557.50
elo momentum (last 5)2.56-11.80
eye test v1-0.54-0.36
eye trend v10.190.18
first sub minute (last 10)65.8064.70
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.670.81
league points31.0066.00
league rank21.007.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0083.00
possession avg (last 5)41.8051.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.200.24
season ppg0.781.69
shot diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6011.00
skill v1-1.580.73
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.40
squad age24.8827.73
state index-0.71-0.03
sterile dominance v1-1.130.62
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.310.22
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80