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Orleans 0–0 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win43%2.28
Beziers win30%3.23
Draw27%3.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Aboubakary Kanté · Beziers
50'🟨Abdoulkader Thiam · Orleans
90'🟨Cédric Cambon · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots10
6On target6
8Corners5
19Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansBeziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.630.59
cards avg (last 5)3.002.40
coach days2504.00949.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.19
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
corner diff avg (last 5)
-1.00
-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.263.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.18
dominance (last 5)0.420.40
elo1457.871401.26
elo momentum (last 5)-47.45-2.95
eye test v1-0.050.19
eye trend v1-0.410.33
first sub minute (last 10)61.7061.90
form points (last 5)0.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.71
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
keeper form v10.710.72
league points55.0042.00
league rank10.0018.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2047.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.160.26
season ppg1.381.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.6011.00
skill v10.37-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.207.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age27.3628.26
state index-1.06-0.66
sterile dominance v10.60-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.160.28
threat rate (last 5)0.190.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80