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Valenciennes 1–2 Niort

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes win50%1.93
Draw28%3.44
Niort win22%4.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Cyriaque Rivieryan · Niort
32'⚽Sébastien Roudet · Valenciennes
53'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Niort
55'🟨Sébastien Roudet · Valenciennes
67'⚽Dylan Louiserre · Niort
72'⚽Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
90'🟨Valentin Jacob · Niort
90'🟨Thibaut Vion · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots10
4On target3
5Corners3
15Fouls15
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.410.74
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
coach days1211.00115.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.802.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.402.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.410.39
elo1427.761418.11
elo momentum (last 5)-21.24-13.12
eye test v1-0.33-1.11
eye trend v10.030.24
first sub minute (last 10)72.6059.50
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.160.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.690.68
league points41.0045.00
league rank16.0014.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win5.0019.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0069.00
possession avg (last 5)44.4045.20
rest days4.002.83
scorer concentration0.230.18
season ppg1.081.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.80-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.607.60
skill v1-0.67-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.40
squad age26.4524.68
state index-0.95-1.40
sterile dominance v1-0.24-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.230.15
threat rate (last 5)0.220.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.40