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Grenoble 4–2 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Grenoble win47%2.06
Draw27%3.55
Beziers win26%3.77

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Aboubakary Kanté · Beziers
30'⚽Malek Chergui · Grenoble
37'⚽Faycal Rherras · Beziers
41'🟨Mickael Diakota · Beziers
42'🟨Nicolas Belvito · Grenoble
56'⚽Youssouf M'Changama · Grenoble
61'⚽Malek Chergui · Grenoble
68'🟨Ibrahima Coulibaly · Grenoble
70'🟨Romain Grange · Grenoble
80'🟨Antoine Rabillard · Beziers
85'🟨Rayane Aabid · Beziers
90'🟨Ibrahima Coulibaly · Grenoble
90'🟥Ibrahima Coulibaly · Grenoble
90'⚽Florian Sotoca · Grenoble

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
20Shots12
10On target5
10Corners6
15Fouls17
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGrenobleBeziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.500.59
cards avg (last 5)1.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Alpes
coach days329.00935.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.252.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.17
dominance (last 5)0.500.46
elo1407.901398.48
elo momentum (last 5)-19.59-16.87
eye test v1-0.21-0.02
eye trend v10.020.27
first sub minute (last 10)61.9059.10
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.75
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
keeper form v10.670.70
league points47.0039.00
league rank12.0018.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8078.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8046.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.350.21
season ppg1.241.03
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.40
skill v10.43-0.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age29.1627.47
state index-0.79-0.75
sterile dominance v10.29-0.31
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.26
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80