⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Racing Club de Lens 0–1 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2018 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win46%2.12
Draw29%3.32
FC Lorient win25%3.86

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
34'🟨Sidy Sarr · FC Lorient
42'🟨Felipe Saad · FC Lorient
43'🟨Matthieu Saunier · FC Lorient
54'🟨Yannick Gomis · Racing Club de Lens
57'🟨Massadio Haïdara · Racing Club de Lens
83'🟨Simon Banza · Racing Club de Lens
90'🟨Fabien Centonze · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots7
2On target2
8Corners1
16Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.500.47
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
2.40
coach days357.00693.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.14
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.841.48
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.23
dominance (last 5)0.640.54
elo1515.131477.61
elo momentum (last 5)-4.14-27.31
eye test v10.580.20
eye trend v10.560.10
first sub minute (last 10)60.5063.00
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.370.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.810.59
league points60.0057.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.008.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0084.60
possession avg (last 5)58.2057.00
rest days3.003.83
scorer concentration0.260.36
season ppg1.621.54
shot diff avg (last 5)7.002.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.8011.80
skill v10.571.28
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.604.00
squad age25.5926.13
state index0.29-0.64
sterile dominance v10.311.03
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40