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Beziers 1–1 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2018 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Perreau Niel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win47%2.05
Draw27%3.54
Beziers win25%3.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Florent Ogier · Clermont
45'🟨Yohann Magnin · Clermont
48'🟨Manuel Perez · Clermont
71'🟨Emmanuel Banda · Beziers
73'🟨Redah Atassi · Beziers
83'⚽Aboubakary Kanté · Beziers
86'⚽Jonathan Iglesias · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots18
6On target5
3Corners1
12Fouls17
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeziersClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.570.53
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Mediterranee
coach days932.002487.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.09
dominance (last 5)0.440.55
elo1396.321532.39
elo momentum (last 5)-21.76-17.28
eye test v1-0.24-0.30
eye trend v10.19-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)56.3058.40
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.791.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.690.76
league points38.0052.00
league rank19.0010.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0082.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8053.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.170.38
season ppg1.031.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.402.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8012.00
skill v10.080.76
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.80
squad age27.5127.29
state index-0.660.01
sterile dominance v10.020.52
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00