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Le Havre AC 2–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremie Pignard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win38%2.56
Draw34%2.83
Paris FC win28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟥Ousmane Kanté · Paris FC
38'⚽Hervé Bazile · Le Havre AC
39'🟨Lalaina Nomenjanahary · Paris FC
44'⚽Romain Perraud · Paris FC
70'🟨Steeve Yago · Le Havre AC
73'⚽Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC
75'🟨Pape Gueye · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots6
10On target1
10Corners1
18Fouls6
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.580.42
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
coach days930.00322.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.252.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.08
dominance (last 5)0.530.57
elo1524.581565.95
elo momentum (last 5)18.20-5.84
eye test v10.24-0.10
eye trend v1-0.160.40
first sub minute (last 10)65.9066.60
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.690.75
league points49.0061.00
league rank11.004.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0080.80
possession avg (last 5)53.2052.80
rest days7.004.00
scorer concentration0.180.26
season ppg1.401.74
shot diff avg (last 5)1.202.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.60
skill v10.130.60
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
squad age25.7127.81
state index0.320.28
sterile dominance v10.100.62
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80