⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Clermont 0–0 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Faouzi Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win47%2.08
Draw30%3.18
Ajaccio win23%4.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Josué Albert · Clermont
48'🟨Josué Albert · Clermont
48'🟥Josué Albert · Clermont
53'🟨Felix Tomi · Ajaccio
69'🟨Yann Boé-Kane · Ajaccio
72'🟨Franck Honorat · Clermont
75'🟨Florent Ogier · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots3
0On target3
1Corners3
12Fouls16
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.550.48
cards avg (last 5)1.600.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days2483.00200.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.632.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.10
dominance (last 5)0.570.46
elo1537.961379.63
elo momentum (last 5)-16.82-23.41
eye test v10.07-0.83
eye trend v10.13-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)55.9062.10
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.05
keeper form v10.720.66
league points51.0066.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win3.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2077.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4049.60
rest days7.006.83
scorer concentration0.380.18
season ppg1.461.05
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.8010.40
skill v10.620.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.40
squad age25.9328.30
state index-0.18-1.02
sterile dominance v10.190.40
threat rate (last 10)0.260.20
threat rate (last 3)0.260.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.40