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Sochaux 1–3 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw34%2.81
Sochaux win34%2.84
Le Havre AC win31%3.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽ (og)Maxence Prévot · Le Havre AC
37'⚽Hervé Bazile · Le Havre AC
43'🟨Mohamed Sissoko · Sochaux
71'🟨Elisha Owusu · Sochaux
71'🟨Hervé Bazile · Le Havre AC
76'⚽Yohan Mollo · Sochaux
89'⚽Hervé Bazile · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
12Shots12
3On target6
7Corners6
9Fouls17
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.740.60
cards avg (last 5)3.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
coach days132.00923.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.431.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.370.52
elo1412.771511.23
elo momentum (last 5)39.935.76
eye test v1-1.170.19
eye trend v10.360.09
first sub minute (last 10)57.3066.00
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.720.73
league points40.0046.00
league rank14.0012.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2076.20
possession avg (last 5)39.8052.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.190.19
season ppg1.181.35
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.600.80
shots for avg (last 5)6.8013.00
skill v1-1.480.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.80
squad age24.0225.69
state index-0.050.00
sterile dominance v1-0.37-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.170.26
threat rate (last 3)0.170.22
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60