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Le Havre AC 0–0 Niort

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Perreau Niel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win60%1.62
Draw25%3.92
Niort win16%6.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Thibaut Vion · Niort
40'🟨Romain Basque · Le Havre AC
45'🟨Julien Da Costa · Niort
77'🟨Zakaria Grich · Niort
84'🟨Issouf Paro · Niort
90'🟨Saturnin Allagbe · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots10
1On target2
7Corners4
14Fouls17
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.570.56
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
coach days916.0094.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.02
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.15
dominance (last 5)0.570.46
elo1515.151431.24
elo momentum (last 5)2.21-37.64
eye test v10.42-0.89
eye trend v10.440.21
first sub minute (last 10)62.9056.40
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.730.62
league points45.0041.00
league rank11.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.0014.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2050.20
rest days4.006.96
scorer concentration0.190.20
season ppg1.361.24
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.809.80
skill v10.180.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.40
squad age25.6724.62
state index0.15-1.41
sterile dominance v1-0.290.44
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.17
threat rate (last 5)0.300.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20