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Clermont 2–3 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win51%1.88
Draw28%3.44
Nancy win20%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Alassane Ndiaye · Clermont
30'⚽Denis Will Poha · Nancy
35'🟨Ernest Seka · Nancy
38'🟨Julien Laporte · Clermont
61'🟨Mathias Pereira Lage · Clermont
80'⚽Sylvain Marveaux · Nancy
89'⚽Sylvain Marveaux · Nancy
90'⚽Faneva Andriatsima · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
21Shots11
10On target4
7Corners1
11Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.550.61
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days2469.00186.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.202.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.15
dominance (last 5)0.570.65
elo1562.911423.97
elo momentum (last 5)35.3017.93
eye test v10.200.12
eye trend v10.10-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)61.5057.80
form points (last 5)11.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.551.58
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.790.65
league points51.0036.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0079.60
possession avg (last 5)54.0049.60
rest days6.966.96
scorer concentration0.420.21
season ppg1.551.09
shot diff avg (last 5)3.407.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0015.00
skill v10.700.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
squad age25.7626.80
state index0.740.13
sterile dominance v10.32-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.250.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40