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Racing Club de Lens 0–0 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2018 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastein Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win49%1.96
Draw28%3.40
Le Havre AC win22%4.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Denys Bain · Le Havre AC
58'🟨Amos Youga · Le Havre AC
66'🟨Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC
69'🟨Seif Teka · Racing Club de Lens
71'🟥Amos Youga · Le Havre AC
74'🟨Cheick Doucouré · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots12
6On target3
8Corners5
15Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.650.62
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
1.60
coach days335.00912.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.403.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.942.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.16
dominance (last 5)0.510.60
elo1507.341513.62
elo momentum (last 5)-14.94-7.66
eye test v1-0.690.52
eye trend v1-0.160.58
first sub minute (last 10)55.8061.60
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.620.65
league points54.0044.00
league rank5.0011.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.008.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6079.80
possession avg (last 5)48.8053.80
rest days13.7616.96
scorer concentration0.240.19
season ppg1.641.38
shot diff avg (last 5)0.405.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.6016.00
skill v1-0.420.56
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.00
squad age26.7825.60
state index0.08-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.29
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60