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Stade Brestois 29 0–0 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Jeremie Pignard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win38%2.58
Clermont win31%3.10
Draw31%3.12

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Quentin Bernard · Stade Brestois 29
51'🟨Ludovic Soares · Clermont
74'🟨Anthony Weber · Stade Brestois 29
80'🟨Johan Gastien · Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots10
3On target2
7Corners3
11Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Clermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.440.55
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
coach days1001.002462.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-BlΓ©
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.47
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.57
elo1593.551560.28
elo momentum (last 5)-31.6720.51
eye test v10.460.34
eye trend v10.160.51
first sub minute (last 10)56.5062.50
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.670.73
league points63.0050.00
league rank3.007.00
matches since blank16.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)54.4056.60
rest days13.0014.00
scorer concentration0.400.42
season ppg1.911.56
shot diff avg (last 5)0.803.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.8014.40
skill v10.670.98
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.80
squad age26.6425.94
state index-0.090.74
sterile dominance v10.720.52
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.200.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80