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FC Lorient 1–1 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Ruddy Buquet, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win40%2.45
Draw32%3.07
Stade Brestois 29 win29%3.35

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient
31'🟨Yoann Court · Stade Brestois 29
41'🟨Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
55'⚽Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
69'⚽Yoann Court · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots10
5On target5
3Corners6
11Fouls15
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.46
box share (last 5)0.600.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days655.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
988.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.373.08
elo1505.231568.31
elo momentum (last 5)-7.97-22.32
eye test v1-0.500.33
eye trend v10.140.41
first sub minute (last 10)56.7057.10
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.620.68
league points49.0054.00
league rank5.003.00
matches since blank7.0013.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4078.40
possession avg (last 5)51.0054.40
rest days7.797.79
scorer concentration0.350.41
season ppg1.751.93
skill v10.440.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.00
state index-0.08-0.06
sterile dominance v10.650.59
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40