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Red Star 0–4 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win49%1.99
Draw29%3.33
Red Star win22%4.32

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽ (pen)Florian Ayé · Clermont
39'🟨Vital Nsimba · Clermont
48'⚽Florian Ayé · Clermont
57'⚽Franck Honorat · Clermont
64'⚽Florian Ayé · Clermont
65'🟨Florian Ayé · Clermont
79'🟨Jordan Faucher · Red Star
85'🟨Mamadou Bagayoko · Red Star
86'🟨Samba Diakite · Red Star
89'🟨Julien Laporte · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots15
7On target7
9Corners11
13Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
coach days165.002448.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.701.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.360.62
elo1328.221549.67
elo momentum (last 5)2.63-0.64
eye test v1-0.610.09
eye trend v10.400.37
first sub minute (last 10)61.2069.00
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.700.70
league points23.0047.00
league rank21.008.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)47.8060.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.39
season ppg0.741.52
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.605.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.2015.60
skill v10.101.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
squad age27.7925.78
state index-0.690.32
sterile dominance v10.680.70
threat rate (last 10)0.170.24
threat rate (last 3)0.160.26
threat rate (last 5)0.150.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80