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Metz 1–1 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2018 · Mon, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremie Pignard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Metz win60%1.60
Draw26%3.65
Sochaux win13%7.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Sofiane Daham · Sochaux
26'🟨Jean Ruiz · Sochaux
59'🟨Rafa Navarro · Sochaux
68'🟨Sofiane Daham · Sochaux
68'🟥Sofiane Daham · Sochaux
69'🟨Cyrille Bayala · Sochaux
75'⚽ (pen)Habib Diallo · Metz
77'🟨John Boye · Metz
79'🟨Habib Maïga · Metz
81'⚽ (pen)Rafa Navarro · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots7
9On target2
4Corners5
12Fouls14
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMetzSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.500.60
cards avg (last 5)2.803.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Saint-Symphorien
coach days314.00100.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.681.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.13
dominance (last 5)0.540.37
elo1596.191372.84
elo momentum (last 5)12.37-25.36
eye test v1-0.22-1.14
eye trend v10.430.46
first sub minute (last 10)66.9058.50
form points (last 5)9.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.770.66
league points64.0031.00
league rank1.0018.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6070.80
possession avg (last 5)54.8054.40
rest days7.0010.00
scorer concentration0.330.21
season ppg2.131.07
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.407.40
skill v10.51-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.901.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.40
squad age26.2822.93
state index0.54-1.14
sterile dominance v10.380.75
threat rate (last 10)0.230.15
threat rate (last 3)0.230.13
threat rate (last 5)0.240.14
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20