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FC Lorient 1–3 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2018 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win51%1.91
Draw30%3.18
Orleans win19%5.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'⚽ (og)Felipe Saad · Orleans
43'⚽Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
49'⚽Thomas Ephestion · Orleans
68'🟨Vincent Le Goff · FC Lorient
74'🟨Adrien Monfray · Orleans
81'🟨Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
90'🟨Gauthier Gallon · Orleans
90'⚽ (pen)Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
10Shots9
5On target4
5Corners7
9Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
box share (last 5)0.580.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days641.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
2435.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.361.83
elo1538.461431.88
elo momentum (last 5)39.4841.11
eye test v1-0.62-0.49
eye trend v10.120.46
first sub minute (last 10)54.3058.70
form points (last 5)15.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.88
keeper form v10.750.65
league points49.0037.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6070.00
possession avg (last 5)43.0044.60
rest days7.787.78
scorer concentration0.310.25
season ppg1.881.42
skill v1-0.39-1.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
state index0.670.22
sterile dominance v1-0.15-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40