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Racing Club de Lens 4–1 Niort

← Ligue 2 2018 · Mon, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win61%1.58
Draw25%3.90
Niort win15%6.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽ (pen)Yannick Gomis · Racing Club de Lens
33'⚽ (og)Florian Lapis · Racing Club de Lens
39'🟨Cheick Doucouré · Racing Club de Lens
42'⚽Valentin Jacob · Niort
54'⚽Mounir Chouiar · Racing Club de Lens
63'⚽Grejohn Kyei · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
8Shots11
5On target1
3Corners2
14Fouls13
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.640.50
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
coach days300.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.05
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.832.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.11
dominance (last 5)0.560.54
elo1522.281468.87
elo momentum (last 5)4.30-25.10
eye test v1-0.26-0.69
eye trend v1-0.08-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)49.9062.60
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.710.69
league points48.0039.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win0.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2074.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8050.00
rest days8.009.83
scorer concentration0.270.21
season ppg1.711.39
shot diff avg (last 5)2.401.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4011.80
skill v1-0.50-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.00
squad age26.3123.77
state index0.32-0.72
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80