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Red Star 1–0 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremie Pignard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win39%2.48
Draw31%3.11
Valenciennes win30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Matthieu Fontaine · Red Star
55'🟨Laurent Dos Santos · Valenciennes
57'🟥Clément Chantôme · Red Star
68'⚽Amadou Diallo · Red Star
77'🟨Samba Diakite · Red Star
82'🟨Gregoire Lefebvre · Red Star
82'🟨Eden Massouema · Valenciennes
88'🟨Maxence Derrien · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots11
6On target1
3Corners6
11Fouls13
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.29
box share (last 5)0.550.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days144.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
1148.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.692.00
elo1328.031400.03
elo momentum (last 5)-14.9523.55
eye test v1-0.81-1.10
eye trend v1-0.120.03
first sub minute (last 10)56.6056.30
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.15
keeper form v10.630.67
league points18.0028.00
league rank19.0015.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4073.20
possession avg (last 5)49.2046.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.190.21
season ppg0.721.12
skill v10.21-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.60
state index-1.06-0.22
sterile dominance v10.570.24
threat rate (last 10)0.190.15
threat rate (last 3)0.150.15
threat rate (last 5)0.180.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00