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Ajaccio 1–0 Niort

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win49%1.97
Draw32%2.98
Niort win18%5.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'⚽Jeremy Choplin · Ajaccio
61'🟨Louis Ameka Autchanga · Niort
69'🟨Brahim Konate · Niort
75'🟨Jeremy Choplin · Ajaccio
76'🟨Qazim Laci · Ajaccio
89'🟨Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots10
2On target0
4Corners7
21Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.120.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.460.51
cards avg (last 5)0.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
coach days130.0038.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.572.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.480.50
elo1417.121478.77
elo momentum (last 5)10.42-23.64
eye test v1-1.54-0.23
eye trend v1-0.220.11
first sub minute (last 10)57.9057.50
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.680.72
league points50.0037.00
league rank3.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win4.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8073.60
possession avg (last 5)42.8049.20
rest days3.887.00
scorer concentration0.110.22
season ppg1.091.48
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.4012.40
skill v1-1.21-0.39
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)1.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.404.00
squad age28.9524.15
state index-0.48-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.23-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.180.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40