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Racing Club de Lens 3–0 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Mon, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Yohann Rouinsard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win63%1.52
Draw25%3.90
Beziers win12%8.04

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Guillaume Gillet · Racing Club de Lens
30'⚽ (pen)Yannick Gomis · Racing Club de Lens
40'⚽Achraf Bencharki · Racing Club de Lens
78'🟨Mickael Diakota · Beziers
84'🟨Ibrahima Savane · Beziers

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
7Shots6
5On target1
3Corners7
18Fouls16
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensBeziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.43
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
1.80
coach days279.00854.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.07
corner diff avg (last 5)3.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.873.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.12
dominance (last 5)0.570.43
elo1502.371422.73
elo momentum (last 5)-39.88-27.30
eye test v10.03-0.60
eye trend v10.320.22
first sub minute (last 10)50.4056.00
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.540.71
league points41.0026.00
league rank6.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win2.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8075.40
possession avg (last 5)56.0048.40
rest days6.807.00
scorer concentration0.300.23
season ppg1.641.04
shot diff avg (last 5)4.80-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.208.80
skill v10.71-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.40
squad age25.9626.56
state index-0.44-0.96
sterile dominance v10.610.23
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20