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Sochaux 2–1 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win46%2.13
Draw31%3.13
Sochaux win24%4.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Florent Ogier · Clermont
20'🟨Rafa Navarro · Sochaux
27'🟨Elisha Owusu · Sochaux
34'⚽Hamza Sakhi · Sochaux
54'🟨Florian Ayé · Clermont
69'🟨Jason Pendant · Sochaux
74'🟨Lawrence Ati Zigi · Sochaux
77'⚽Manuel Perez · Clermont
82'⚽Cyrille Bayala · Sochaux
85'🟨Jonathan Iglesias · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots13
4On target1
4Corners6
13Fouls10
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.190.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.140.39
box share (last 5)0.600.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days62.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
2406.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.882.01
elo1367.951550.02
elo momentum (last 5)-18.5125.83
eye test v1-1.740.22
eye trend v10.10-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)62.0069.60
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.23
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.660.64
league points21.0036.00
league rank15.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2081.80
possession avg (last 5)46.2056.00
rest days6.214.04
scorer concentration0.250.38
season ppg0.951.64
skill v1-0.320.92
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.105.20
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)1.204.60
state index-0.870.44
sterile dominance v10.400.76
threat rate (last 10)0.140.22
threat rate (last 3)0.170.22
threat rate (last 5)0.160.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00