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Valenciennes 1–2 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Perreau Niel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win50%1.95
Draw27%3.56
Valenciennes win23%4.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Florian Raspentino · Valenciennes
35'🟨Nathael Julan · Valenciennes
35'🟨Matthieu Saunier · FC Lorient
38'🟥Sikou Niakaté · Valenciennes
39'⚽Vincent Le Goff · FC Lorient
41'⚽Alexis Claude-Maurice · FC Lorient
45'🟨Matthieu Saunier · FC Lorient
45'🟥Matthieu Saunier · FC Lorient
72'🟨Saliou Ciss · Valenciennes
76'🟨Joris Sainati · FC Lorient
79'🟨Illan Meslier · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
11Shots13
4On target3
7Corners3
14Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.540.63
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
coach days1120.00605.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.004.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.002.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.962.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.16
dominance (last 5)0.390.64
elo1396.471494.81
elo momentum (last 5)-9.68-38.78
eye test v1-0.93-0.29
eye trend v1-0.120.04
first sub minute (last 10)61.8058.80
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.670.53
league points22.0037.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)50.6057.00
rest days7.006.83
scorer concentration0.240.35
season ppg0.961.54
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.405.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.2011.60
skill v1-0.071.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.601.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
squad age25.6825.58
state index-0.62-0.40
sterile dominance v10.630.78
threat rate (last 10)0.170.20
threat rate (last 3)0.170.24
threat rate (last 5)0.160.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80