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Red Star 1–3 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Lepaysant, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win35%2.75
Draw33%2.93
Chateauroux win32%3.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'⚽ (pen)Grégory Bourillon · Chateauroux
45'🟨Chaker Alhadhur · Chateauroux
56'⚽Cheick Diarra · Chateauroux
71'🟨Loïc Lapoussin · Red Star
79'⚽Razak Boukari · Chateauroux
86'🟨Maxime Barthelmé · Chateauroux
87'⚽Matthieu Fontaine · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots20
4On target6
7Corners5
17Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.590.55
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
coach days116.001942.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.483.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.53
elo1334.101415.27
elo momentum (last 5)34.27-37.48
eye test v1-0.55-0.17
eye trend v10.220.31
first sub minute (last 10)57.8054.10
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.610.72
league points16.0023.00
league rank21.0018.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0078.40
possession avg (last 5)45.6054.40
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.20
season ppg0.701.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.401.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.4011.80
skill v1-0.280.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age26.2729.84
state index-0.22-0.74
sterile dominance v10.090.41
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40