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Racing Club de Lens 2–1 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win50%1.92
Draw31%3.11
Nancy win19%5.21

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Vincent Muratori · Nancy
35'⚽ (pen)Amine Bassi · Nancy
56'⚽Achraf Bencharki · Racing Club de Lens
70'🟨Ernest Seka · Nancy
73'⚽Achraf Bencharki · Racing Club de Lens
76'🟨El-Hadji Ba · Racing Club de Lens
76'🟨Ernest Seka · Nancy
76'πŸŸ₯Ernest Seka Β· Nancy

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots9
9On target5
4Corners3
11Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.490.54
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
coach days263.00110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.962.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.12
dominance (last 5)0.580.55
elo1513.121375.38
elo momentum (last 5)-14.3715.18
eye test v1-0.36-0.35
eye trend v1-0.06-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)52.9048.80
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.570.47
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.550.70
league points38.0017.00
league rank6.0020.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)52.4049.20
rest days5.008.00
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg1.730.81
shot diff avg (last 5)4.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.80
skill v10.24-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.60
squad age25.4625.31
state index-0.14-0.32
sterile dominance v10.300.05
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00