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Le Havre AC 4–3 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2018 · Tue, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win60%1.62
Draw24%3.97
Valenciennes win16%5.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Florian Raspentino · Valenciennes
20'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
21'⚽Fernand Mayembo · Le Havre AC
23'🟨Fernand Mayembo · Le Havre AC
32'⚽Tino Kadewere · Le Havre AC
33'⚽Florian Raspentino · Valenciennes
36'⚽Jorris Romil · Valenciennes
41'⚽Alimami Gory · Le Havre AC
67'⚽Alimami Gory · Le Havre AC
75'🟨Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC
82'🟨Romain Basque · Le Havre AC
88'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
88'🟥Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
90'🟨Himad Abdelli · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score3
12Shots9
5On target4
1Corners2
17Fouls19
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.620.53
cards avg (last 5)1.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
coach days836.001110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.971.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.05
dominance (last 5)0.520.39
elo1535.061399.00
elo momentum (last 5)-5.66-0.79
eye test v1-0.08-0.79
eye trend v1-0.15-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)66.2065.10
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.710.72
league points30.0021.00
league rank12.0019.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2078.60
possession avg (last 5)47.8054.40
rest days3.004.00
scorer concentration0.210.29
season ppg1.431.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.406.60
skill v1-0.310.48
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.40
squad age25.4427.12
state index0.16-0.52
sterile dominance v1-0.451.26
threat rate (last 10)0.260.16
threat rate (last 3)0.250.15
threat rate (last 5)0.280.12
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20