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AJ Auxerre 4–0 Grenoble

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win42%2.31
Draw33%2.98
Grenoble win25%3.81

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Daniel Mancini · AJ Auxerre
24'🟨Mickael Tacalfred · AJ Auxerre
45'⚽Jordan Adeoti · AJ Auxerre
47'⚽Carlens Arcus · AJ Auxerre
51'🟨Ryan Sanusi · Grenoble
55'⚽ (pen)Mohamed Yattara · AJ Auxerre
57'🟨Maxime Spano · Grenoble
67'🟨Loïc Goujon · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
8Shots15
5On target7
4Corners11
16Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreGrenoble
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
box share (last 5)0.560.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days385.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
203.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.561.57
elo1433.421477.81
elo momentum (last 5)28.0221.46
eye test v1-0.300.29
eye trend v1-0.200.29
first sub minute (last 10)56.2063.60
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.27
keeper form v10.730.68
league points20.0031.00
league rank14.006.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8076.80
possession avg (last 5)49.8048.40
rest days7.027.02
scorer concentration0.250.33
season ppg1.111.72
skill v10.09-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.20
state index-0.110.32
sterile dominance v10.06-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.60