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Stade Brestois 29 3–0 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremie Pignard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win63%1.53
Draw24%4.05
Beziers win13%7.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Hassan Lingani · Beziers
37'🟨Haris Belkebla · Stade Brestois 29
45'⚽Yoann Court · Stade Brestois 29
47'🟨Anthony Weber · Stade Brestois 29
51'🟨Faycal Rherras · Beziers
64'🟨Hassan Lingani · Beziers
64'🟥Hassan Lingani · Beziers
65'⚽ (pen)Gaëtan Charbonnier · Stade Brestois 29
85'⚽Édouard Butin · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots4
8On target1
8Corners0
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Beziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.610.70
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-Blé
coach days896.00802.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.10—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.06
corner diff avg (last 5)2.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.15
dominance (last 5)0.550.50
elo1614.501457.85
elo momentum (last 5)-14.26-33.57
eye test v1-0.11-0.64
eye trend v1-0.40-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)63.2053.90
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.40—
keeper form v10.680.74
league points40.0024.00
league rank2.0014.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8076.00
possession avg (last 5)58.8041.20
rest days10.0010.00
scorer concentration0.450.25
season ppg2.111.26
shot diff avg (last 5)2.60-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.2010.40
skill v10.90-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)3.006.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
squad age28.2527.23
state index0.42-0.54
sterile dominance v10.93-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.130.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80