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Red Star 3–0 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win35%2.74
Draw34%2.83
Red Star win30%3.20

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Harouna Sy · Red Star
15'🟨Amadou Diallo · Red Star
29'🟨Elisha Owusu · Sochaux
35'🟨Emmanuel Bourgaud · Red Star
44'⚽Jordan Faucher · Red Star
54'πŸŸ₯Ermedin Demirovic Β· Sochaux
67'⚽Amadou Diallo · Red Star
80'πŸŸ₯Olivier Verdon Β· Sochaux
85'🟨Samba Diakite · Red Star
87'⚽Xavier Tomas · Red Star

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots4
9On target0
1Corners3
18Fouls17
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.200.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.510.33
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
coach days74.0013.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.11
dominance (last 5)0.350.33
elo1296.021420.78
elo momentum (last 5)-45.58-11.72
eye test v1-1.31-0.73
eye trend v10.100.23
first sub minute (last 10)52.5054.70
form points (last 5)0.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.590.59
league points9.0023.00
league rank21.0015.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6073.40
possession avg (last 5)44.8050.40
rest days10.009.79
scorer concentration0.250.27
season ppg0.471.21
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.60-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.606.00
skill v1-0.27-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.402.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)1.803.00
squad age25.8522.45
state index-1.87-0.57
sterile dominance v10.140.80
threat rate (last 10)0.190.16
threat rate (last 3)0.180.10
threat rate (last 5)0.190.12
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40