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Orleans 1–3 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastein Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win40%2.45
Draw32%3.01
Ajaccio win28%3.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio
15'🟨Jeremy Choplin · Ajaccio
16'⚽ (pen)Anthony Le Tallec · Orleans
49'🟨Cédric Cambon · Orleans
49'⚽ (pen)Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
58'⚽Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
68'🟥Yohan Demoncy · Orleans
70'🟨Durel Avounou · Orleans
73'🟨Anthony Le Tallec · Orleans
76'🟨Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
90'🟥Riad Nouri · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots16
3On target7
6Corners4
14Fouls9
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.31
box share (last 5)0.620.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2357.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
74.00
congestion 21d3.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.413.02
elo1417.871359.36
elo momentum (last 5)-50.36-26.85
eye test v1-0.27-0.66
eye trend v10.310.45
first sub minute (last 10)65.0060.10
form points (last 5)1.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.84
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.660.54
league points23.0030.00
league rank12.005.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win5.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6072.00
possession avg (last 5)47.6052.00
rest days9.960.00
scorer concentration0.290.15
season ppg1.350.94
skill v1-0.39-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.702.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.00
state index-1.18-1.60
sterile dominance v1-0.290.10
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20