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Valenciennes 0–0 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: William Lavis, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win34%2.84
Valenciennes win33%2.91
Draw32%2.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Ousmane Kanté · Paris FC
18'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
74'🟨Laurent Dos Santos · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots6
3On target3
3Corners2
11Fouls8
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.710.56
cards avg (last 5)2.401.40
coach days1064.00182.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.09
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.111.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.03
dominance (last 5)0.390.53
elo1403.971540.69
elo momentum (last 5)5.723.32
eye test v1-0.24-0.81
eye trend v10.270.23
first sub minute (last 10)66.4062.90
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.670.83
league points17.0028.00
league rank19.006.00
matches since blank5.002.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6081.00
possession avg (last 5)55.2051.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.18
season ppg1.001.65
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.000.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.408.60
skill v10.430.53
sot against avg (last 5)6.202.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.60
squad age26.8927.49
state index-0.450.24
sterile dominance v10.870.81
threat rate (last 10)0.200.18
threat rate (last 3)0.170.17
threat rate (last 5)0.170.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00