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Orleans 1–2 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Nov 30, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Alexandre Perreau Niel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win44%2.23
Draw31%3.10
Nancy win25%3.85

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Anthony Robic · Nancy
40'🟨Serge N'Guessan · Nancy
41'🟨Gauthier Pinaud · Orleans
43'⚽Vinni Triboulet · Nancy
61'⚽Malaly Dembele · Nancy
88'⚽Gabriel Mutombo · Orleans
90'🟨Pierre Bouby · Orleans
90'🟨Durel Avounou · Orleans

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots9
5On target5
9Corners3
17Fouls13
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.36
box share (last 5)0.660.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2343.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
60.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.143.23
elo1437.481332.39
elo momentum (last 5)-7.41-6.96
eye test v1-0.28-0.03
eye trend v1-0.12-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)65.8047.10
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.52
keeper form v10.680.70
league points23.008.00
league rank11.0019.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8076.20
possession avg (last 5)46.8049.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.280.20
season ppg1.530.53
skill v1-0.63-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
state index-0.33-0.75
sterile dominance v1-0.63-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80