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Sochaux 1–4 AJ Auxerre

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastein Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win34%2.87
AJ Auxerre win33%2.90
Draw33%2.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Romain Philippoteaux · AJ Auxerre
53'⚽Mickael Tacalfred · AJ Auxerre
54'🟨Jordan Adeoti · AJ Auxerre
60'🟨Kenji Van Boto · AJ Auxerre
62'⚽ (pen)Ermedin Demirovic · Sochaux
75'🟨Ermedin Demirovic · Sochaux
76'🟨Mickael Tacalfred · AJ Auxerre
79'⚽ (pen)Romain Philippoteaux · AJ Auxerre
82'🟨Carlens Arcus · AJ Auxerre
86'🟨Samuel Souprayen · AJ Auxerre
88'⚽Jordan Adeoti · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots13
3On target8
5Corners6
12Fouls18
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxAJ Auxerre
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
box share (last 5)0.560.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days540.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
357.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.333.75
elo1400.581405.15
elo momentum (last 5)-15.629.18
eye test v1-0.80-0.62
eye trend v10.370.29
first sub minute (last 10)58.5055.40
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.630.54
league points14.0014.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2071.20
possession avg (last 5)45.6044.60
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.330.33
season ppg1.001.00
skill v1-1.19-0.94
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.20
state index-0.74-0.31
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.160.23
threat rate (last 3)0.150.26
threat rate (last 5)0.190.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20