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Nancy 1–0 Red Star

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yohann Rouinsard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win43%2.27
Draw33%2.93
Red Star win24%4.02

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'🟥Mourad Satli · Red Star
53'🟨Maxence Derrien · Red Star
57'🟨Clément Chantôme · Red Star
62'⚽Wilfried Moimbé · Nancy
76'🟨Omenuke Mfulu · Red Star
90'🟨Wilfried Moimbé · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots6
5On target1
7Corners3
14Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyRed Star
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.15
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.430.44
cards avg (last 5)2.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
coach days53.0053.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.061.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.13
dominance (last 5)0.440.42
elo1352.591328.05
elo momentum (last 5)-24.822.82
eye test v1-0.29-0.90
eye trend v10.170.05
first sub minute (last 10)47.3051.20
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.700.55
league points8.009.00
league rank21.0020.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2077.40
possession avg (last 5)45.4047.40
rest days11.0014.00
scorer concentration—0.25
season ppg0.530.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.609.60
skill v1-0.48-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.40
squad age27.2927.48
state index-1.20-0.96
sterile dominance v1-0.480.16
threat rate (last 10)0.240.18
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.40