⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Clermont 3–0 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Nov 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Lepaysant, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win54%1.78
Draw26%3.70
Orleans win19%4.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
27'🟨Jordan Tell · Orleans
39'🟥Gabriel Mutombo · Orleans
40'⚽ (pen)Florian Ayé · Clermont
47'⚽Franck Honorat · Clermont
51'🟨Quentin Lecoeuche · Orleans
82'⚽ (pen)Florian Ayé · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots11
8On target1
7Corners3
5Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.510.69
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days2322.002322.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.04
dominance (last 5)0.630.58
elo1538.541469.25
elo momentum (last 5)-15.5028.41
eye test v10.38-0.36
eye trend v10.500.14
first sub minute (last 10)60.9068.00
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.550.72
league points19.0025.00
league rank12.005.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6068.20
possession avg (last 5)58.0043.40
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.470.28
season ppg1.361.79
shot diff avg (last 5)6.002.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0011.60
skill v11.24-1.33
sot against avg (last 5)2.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.80
squad age26.4328.65
state index0.140.56
sterile dominance v10.75-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.40