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Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Red Star

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremie Pignard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win62%1.56
Draw25%3.87
Red Star win14%7.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Haris Belkebla · Stade Brestois 29
34'⚽Jordan Faucher · Red Star
37'🟨Xavier Tomas · Red Star
48'🟨Julio Donisa · Red Star
69'🟨Anthony Weber · Stade Brestois 29
75'⚽Gaëtan Charbonnier · Stade Brestois 29
79'🟨Jessy Pi · Stade Brestois 29
79'🟨Clément Chantôme · Red Star
80'🟨Nicolas Douchez · Red Star
90'🟨Clément Chantôme · Red Star
90'🟥Clément Chantôme · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
24Shots7
3On target1
8Corners1
9Fouls13
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Red Star
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.680.50
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-Blé
coach days854.0032.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.001.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.081.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.19
dominance (last 5)0.500.42
elo1628.761333.90
elo momentum (last 5)30.06-12.96
eye test v10.24-0.65
eye trend v10.130.30
first sub minute (last 10)61.4051.20
form points (last 5)13.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.710.59
league points32.008.00
league rank2.0021.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0077.20
possession avg (last 5)50.0048.80
rest days4.007.04
scorer concentration0.430.29
season ppg2.290.62
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.608.80
skill v1-0.08-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.00
squad age27.8226.75
state index0.94-1.05
sterile dominance v10.020.33
threat rate (last 10)0.240.19
threat rate (last 3)0.300.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.40