⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Sochaux 0–3 Niort

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Faouzi Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win52%1.85
Draw28%3.51
Niort win20%4.78

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Olivier Verdon · Sochaux
10'⚽ (pen)Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
19'πŸŸ₯Josema Β· Sochaux
20'⚽ (pen)Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
29'🟨Nando · Sochaux
62'⚽Goduine Koyalipou · Niort
64'🟨Jean Ruiz · Sochaux
79'🟨Quentin Bena · Niort

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
6Shots19
1On target7
8Corners7
12Fouls17
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.170.29
box share (last 5)0.610.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days512.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
178.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.402.66
elo1421.071425.49
elo momentum (last 5)-18.38-18.45
eye test v1-1.42-1.19
eye trend v10.090.14
first sub minute (last 10)58.0046.40
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.20
keeper form v10.700.70
league points13.0017.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)53.6046.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.30
season ppg1.181.55
skill v1-0.58-0.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.002.20
state index-0.53-0.69
sterile dominance v10.350.29
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.17
threat rate (last 5)0.180.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80