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Red Star 0–4 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Arnaud Baert

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win36%2.66
Orleans win32%2.99
Draw31%3.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽ (og)Omenuke Mfulu · Orleans
20'⚽Joseph Lopy · Orleans
35'⚽Anthony Le Tallec · Orleans
45'🟨Karim Ziani · Orleans
60'🟨Yohan Demoncy · Orleans
76'🟨Clément Chantôme · Red Star
77'⚽Jordan Tell · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
13Shots10
2On target4
5Corners1
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.560.75
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
coach days25.002308.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.19
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.00
dominance (last 5)0.360.56
elo1348.891479.42
elo momentum (last 5)-8.7669.68
eye test v1-0.85-0.51
eye trend v10.670.42
first sub minute (last 10)51.8066.20
form points (last 5)4.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.640.60
league points8.0022.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0065.60
possession avg (last 5)47.0039.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.27
season ppg0.671.83
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.802.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.0010.80
skill v1-0.28-1.86
sot against avg (last 5)5.401.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
squad age27.9726.13
state index-0.850.88
sterile dominance v10.38-1.13
threat rate (last 10)0.180.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.170.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00