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Le Havre AC 2–3 Beziers

← Ligue 2 2018 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastein Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win62%1.56
Draw27%3.63
Beziers win12%8.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Harold Moukoudi · Le Havre AC
21'⚽Ibrahim Sissoko · Beziers
27'⚽Ibrahim Sissoko · Beziers
46'🟨Hervé Bazile · Le Havre AC
59'🟨Ibrahim Sissoko · Beziers
73'⚽Denys Bain · Le Havre AC
74'🟨Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
76'🟨Yacouba Coulibaly · Le Havre AC
78'🟨Amir Nouri · Beziers
81'⚽Rayane Aabid · Beziers

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
20Shots7
4On target5
11Corners6
16Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACBeziers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.39
box share (last 5)0.560.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days734.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
732.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.27—
elo1562.231460.03
elo momentum (last 5)9.92-44.50
eye test v1-0.36-0.85
eye trend v1-0.340.27
first sub minute (last 10)63.7057.89
form points (last 5)10.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.10—
keeper form v10.860.76
league points16.008.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)45.8051.20
rest days6.213.04
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg1.780.89
skill v1-0.770.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.33
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.60
state index0.37-1.03
sterile dominance v1-0.630.87
threat rate (last 10)0.270.13
threat rate (last 3)0.250.11
threat rate (last 5)0.270.13
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20